Night Four

[Idle Thoughts]

Yikes, another one down.

Plan wisely.

[wolf3]

Farewell, packmates.

Werewolf of London out. See you in the afterlife.

*A howl fades off into the distance.*

[wolf7]

Let's see if my claim works out!!!

I figured it was the perfect time to do it, with two known Freemasons dead.

[wolf1]

I wonder if CatInASuit is telling the truth?

Blaster Master is definitely the third Witch. The only unrecruitable Townies at this point are Witches. And Blaster Master is a confirmed Town, no?

I suppose we have several options here:

No kill.
Kill a confirmed Townie
Kill CatInASuit and claim Vig (and pray he was telling the truth, and that there isn't a real Vig in the game)

I wonder if the Cabal is still alive? I think there must be at least one left. Would it be in their best interest to block a Detective or a Witch?

[wolf7]

I really think Cat is a Vampire.

I don't mind playing the WIFOM game and targeting somebody BlaM says he's going to protect.

Cat is right about keeping the nonclaimed pool as large as possible.

[wolf1]

Here is the thing: I am definitely going to get found out if I kill toNight.

We are the only two Wolves left. You, if you are lucky, will be able to lay low for quite a while. As long as you don't make a kill, you should be fine, barring any remaining Masons investigating you. I, on the other hand, will be exposed the moment I kill a Townie unless Hockey Monkey gets killed.

With any luck, HM will not investigage last Night's killing, because everyone seems to believe we used MHaye (and it would make sense to have done so). She WILL investigate any kills we make tonight. That means we really have to choose carefully. There's no way we can win with the Detective still alive.

Plus, if CatInASuit is still alive tomorrow, I can't claim Vig. And there's really no other role I can claim at this point. Except for Magician, maybe, but the minute I claim, the Witches are going to investigate me (or the Seer, if there is one).

The only way I can kill a Townie toNight and get away with it is if we manage to successfully kill HM. Which is a pretty risky move.

Killing CatInASuit presents its own problems: it's eliminating a known scum, which frees the Town up to focus on other players; plus if he's actually the Vampire, well, I'll be killed in the attempt to kill him.

Our recruitment effort has been fruitless, by the way, since nesta was a Cabal.

[wolf7]

If Cat's alive tomorrow, you can claim you were blocked. That'd stir some shit up for sure.

I was totally prepared to call BlaM's bluff, until you pointed out that if Hockey is still alive, she'll call us out on it. So, how about you

Kill Hockey Monkey

tonight. If you succeed, she's dead, and can't reveal her killer. If you fail, there's no dead body to investigate. Am I missing something? I wouldn't be surprised, since I didn't even realize we had a recruitment. But, for some reason, somebody unrecruitable always tends to be the target.

We can totally still win with the Detective still alive. I think if I get looked at by a Seer, especially, then I'm golden. It may involve a bunch of no kill nights in a row, but it can happen. I think the town as a whole will find it hard to believe that I'm scum FIVE times in a row, and especially a scum that investigates as townie in two SIMULTANEOUS games.

[wolf1]

Well, there is the possibility that Idle will enchant HM, so she'll rise from the dead and identify her killer. Or that there is a Warlock, although no one bothered to counterclaim MHaye.

It'd be hard for me to claim blocked, I think. The Cabal will almost certainly try to block one of the known power roles, and if push came to shove no one would believe my claim over, say, HM's, or one of the Witches. For the HM kill to be successful, we have to hope that the Witches and Idle decide to play chicken with us and think we're going to assume HM is protected and leave her alone. I'm trying to decide if it's worth the risk.

CatInASuit is just as much our enemy as the townies. If I could be sure he wasn't the Vampire I'd go for his throat in a heartbeat.

[wolf7]

Well, if he's alive tomorrow, the town will take care of him for us.

I'm wondering if when BlaM said protect, he was trying to dissuade from enchant. We're the only faction that needs HM gone. The vampire can target anybody they'd like, and most likely will go for one of the witches. I think the witches might be inclined to self protect, leaving Hockey open. It's your call, since you're doing the killing. I'll leave my blue up, just in case you don't get back to undo it. A no kill is fine with me.

[Idle Thoughts]

It's looking like the orders are "HazelNutCoffee kills Hockey Monkey" unless the Alpha says otherwise. Less than two hours left.

[wolf1]

I'm going to think out loud a bit here.

If we kill Hockey, the obvious advantage is that we will no longer have to worry about becoming exposed. The disadvantage is that I will no longer be able to claim Vig, and without the opportunity to make that claim, I really have no way of establishing any Town cred. There is also the risk of us failing - while failing wouldn't expose us since there would be no kill, it would still leave me with no chance to claim Vig. Plus it would be a wasted kill attempt, something we can ill afford at this point.

I've been thinking a bit about who will be protected tonight. Idle and the Witches can protect, but I think Blaster was lying when he said he could guarantee the safety of himself and Hockey. I am 99% sure he is a Witch. That means either him or Dio has to be exposed tonight, because they can either protect or investigate, but not both. They will probably protect Hockey; her role is too crucial to the game for them to play chicken with it, I suspect. (I mean, they might leave her open, but that would be a pretty bold move.) As for Idle, it's hard to say. He may end up protecting one of the Witches, but since they can't communicate with each other (unless he speaks with the dead one, which I doubt he's going to do toNight) they may end up protecting the same one.

Hockey's power is a Day power, so she won't get the results of toNight's kill until the end of the next Day. I'm willing to gamble that she did not investigate nesta's kill yesterDay, under the assumption that it was done by MHaye, and instead she used one of her secret powers. If that is the case, I won't be forced to claim Vig toMorrow, and we can kill her the following Night - before she has a chance to expose toNight's killer. And toNight, instead of killing her, we could kill a Witch. And get away with it, assuming we guess correctly as to which one of them is vulnerably toNight.

The problem with this plan is that involves me not getting lynched during the Day. I can probably slip under the radar for the next Day if we leave CatInASuit alive. But I've already been on people's scumdar for so long that my execution is probably just a matter of time.

(Also, if we're lucky, the Vampire will kill a Witch for us. Or maybe Idle. I doubt s/he's going after Hockey, since her role is no threat to him/her.)

Killing CatInASuit would buy me time. I could claim Vig and get away with it for a few Days, I think, depending on how quickly the Vampire was found. (I hope Hal wasn't the Vig; if he was, sachertorte is going to call me out on my claim, and all it would take is one investigation to expose me.) The bad thing about killing Cat is that we lose the chance of him taking a townie down with him (assuming that what he said about his secret power is true). And of course, he might be the Vampire. That would really suck.

(In hindsight, and as an aside, we should have killed sachertorte a long time ago if we were serious about using our recruitment option - his ability to identify the dead renders the recruitment option useless.)

This whole thing is giving me such a headache.

You know what? We're pretty much screwed at this point anyway. So I'm going to take a risk and hope that the Vampire gets lucky and kills one of the other townie power roles. In the meantime

I'll rip Hockey Monkey's throat out

[Idle Thoughts]

Hockey Monkey was protected. Your attack fails.