Night 4

[naf1138]

Have at it.

[pleonast]

Let's see. Remaining players:
1.storyteller0910
2.HazelNutCoffee
3.Freudian Slit
4.brewha
7.sachertorte
8.Hawkeyeop
11. Pleonast
13. Rysto
14. Hal Briston
15. faithfool
16. zuma
17. Hockey Monkey
18. Kat
19. Diomedes

Removing scum:
1.storyteller0910
4.brewha
8.Hawkeyeop
13. Rysto
14. Hal Briston
15. faithfool
16. zuma
17. Hockey Monkey
18. Kat
19. Diomedes

Removing sach's no-kill list (due to potential frame-ability):
13. Rysto
14. Hal Briston
15. faithfool
16. zuma
18. Kat
19. Diomedes

I don't have strong preferences of the remaining. Personally, I'd rather not kill Hal or faith. From previous analysis I picked Kat or Rysto. Anyone else have preferences?

[sachertorte]

Well that was close.
I honestly didn't expect getting anywhere near lynching brewha with the added day, but we got very close indeed. The way I look at it, we gain from either lynching brewha or the no-lynch. We had to get the no-lynch out of the way, so doing so now is not terribly bad.
I was mildly concerned about Freudian Slip and Pleonast jumping onto the brewha lynch, but I don't think it will be a problem. Plenty of Townies were on that non-lynch wagon, and we don't know brewha's alignment yet so I don't think there will be much accusation based on that yet.
I'm surprised that storyteller expressed doubt about brewha, yet was totally unwilling to vote for him. At least now Town has to lynch, and there is no leeway for another no-lynch. (Of course, the next time this comes up it will be one of us on the verge of getting lynched). Oh well.
Perhaps we shouldn't have offed ShadowFacts so quickly. ShadowFacts was going after brewha. On the other hand, ShadowFacts's alignment and Day One Day Two case against brewha was the reason for Rysto's vote, so perhaps that's a wash.


How do you think Town would react if we killed brewha tonight? It's probably a horrible idea, but I'm kind of bored.

I think we should kill faithfool or Hal Briston. In my opinion, these two are the closest thing we have to "confirmed" town, which is strange since faithfool keeps getting votes! I'm worried about leaving these two alive to the endgame. They need to die. Maybe not Tonight, but soon.

Issues: Do we kill a brewha voter or a non-brewha voter?
pro: killing a brewha voter makes it look like scum is trying to protect brewha. (None of us should say this, of course, but we can hope some Townie does).
con: killing a brewha voter makes it harder to lynch brewha Tomorrow.

Do Not Kill List:
Hawkeyeop - frameable by Freudian Slip
storyteller - frameable by Pleonast

Previous kills (not counting Night Zero)
Cookies - Connected to ShadowFacts, zuma, storyteller, Freudian Slit, Hal Briston, brewha, Rysto, Hawekeyeop
ShadowFacts - Connected to Cookies, zuma, faithfool, MHaye, Rysto

Living players not yet associated with a scum kill:
Pleonast - has connections to brewha, Diomedes,
Diomedes - has connects to faithfool, Kat
HockeyMonkey - Hal Briston
HazelNutCoffee - brewha, Rysto, Kat, zuma
sachertorte - Hockey Monkey, Hal Briston
Kat - Diomedes, faithfool, Rysto, brewha, Hawkeyeop

Of these,
Killing brewha, will establish connections to Pleonast, HazelNutCoffee, and Kat
Killing Kat, will establish Diomedes, and HazelNutCoffee.

I'm not sure how important these connections (or lack of) will be in the endgame.

[pleonast]

Let's see how the argument between me and story about the game secret pans out before killing Hal or faith. Unless the rest of you think it's going nowhere. I'm hoping my argument will lead to a lynch at best or a distraction at worst.

However, I think you're right that Hal and faith need to die. Next Night?

[sachertorte]

Regarding faithfool:
I interjected my change of suspicion on faithfool to set-up faithfool's death, either Tonight or Tomorrow Night. The idea is that scum isn't killing faithfool becuase she is suspicious, but once Town accepts her as pro-town, they kill her. Please be brutally honest as to whether I'm being too cute or too obvious. I think setting up my change of heart at the end of Day Three, then killing her on Night 4 is good spacing. I'm not sure what to do about Pleonast. Maybe let storyteller and me slowly 'convince' Pleonast that the game design precludes faithfool from being scum, and that Hal Briston being scum requires a very risky opening gambit for scum. I don't know. Or you can stick to gunning for faithfool and we just kill her Tomorrow Night anyway. That might be best since as Town, you simply wouldn't know that she really was Town and you couldn't know that scum would kill her. ;D

If Freudian Slit is the Night Three Killer, the attributes that could be exposed are:

(1) (public) Farts are Really Funny... - again bad luck will lead to Freudian Slit likely getting lynched. There will be some discussion about whether or not the real killer merely holds Farts are Funny as a private attribute, but ultimately, I think FS will die if this one gets revealed.
(2) I can say 'hello' and 'thank you' in nine languages - points to HazelNutCoffee, brewha, and OAOW. nonissue like Day 3's reveal, but there will be discussion about all four attributes being held by OAOW. Don't flip out like I did! I think we should let Town discover that tidbit on their own. Resist bringing up scum trait swapping.
(3) My mother was a former NFL cheerleader - points to Pleonast exclusively. Not good for Pleonast, but I think it will be a non-issue like mine was Today. Don't flip out like I did!
(4) I have performed an exorcism - points to Hawkeyeop (public trait), faithfool, brewha, Santo Rugger (dead): This one would be the most interesting one. The fact that 4 people hold this trait (Actually 5, but FS's lie brought the number down to 4) will really muddy the discussion. I'm not even sure if we can pull off a Hawkeyeop lynch based on this. But the argument I will state will be that it sort of makes sense for scum to use a killer whose public trait matches several private traits to add a level of doubt. I think we can get Hawkeyeop lynched this way, but I thought I could get brewha lynched Today too, so don't believe what I say.
(5) I once drove a VW Bug... - This one is just awesome. Points to OAOW, sort of at HockeyMonkey, but mostly at OAOW. Again there will be discussion about how this is possible. I don't think it will support a HockeyMonkey lynch, but light suspicion at HM will probably result.

sachertorte's Day 4 strategy:
Assuming (1) doesn't happen, my hope is a Townie will call me out for changing positions on faithfool in an attempt to get people to vote for brewha. I think I'm trusted enough for this not to happen, but if it does I'll be very very pleased. I will respond by restating the case that faithfool self-voting was my reason for suspecting her, but the dossier-knowledge mechanic precludes her from being scum. Hal Briston brought it up again at the end of the day, so I mentioned my change in thought when it happened. Then I will accuse the Townie of being scum since it seems that he/she knows brewha's alignment. It doesn't make sense to attack me unless you know whether brewha is scum or town.
Thoughts?

Oh and we need to kill someone... hmmmm

[sachertorte]

I was looking at our real traits and the players who could possibly have an exposed trait point to them include:

storyteller
Hawkeyeop
zuma
HockeyMonkey
Diomedes
brewha
faithfool
Hal Briston
Rysto* - only shares Trait with FS and it's her public one

That leaves Rysto and Kat as our kill list for Tonight,
and
Rysto/Kat, faithfool, Hal Briston as our kill list for Future Nights.

Rysto shares the "Farts are really funny" trait with FS so that makes him a lesser choice possibly, but I don't think it makes a difference as FS will likely get lynched regardless of whether Rysto is alive or dead at the time.

Pro-Rysto - Rysto is more talkative than Kat. On the other hand, I'm not against killing a quiet player simply to keep the game moving. But if we were going to kill a quiet player, we would more likely go after HNC than Kat. So I'm kind of worried about Why Kat, why not HNC reasoning. But my worries are probably unfounded.

[sachertorte]

Here's a long-term question:
How do we want to set up the endgame?
Our plan is to have HNC as our final scum. None of Pleonast's traits point to HNC, and only HNC's public trait points to herself. Should we orchestrate our killings so that when HNC is last, that all kills point to NOONE? My fear is that if HNC's kills point to players, then that could be an indication of Townness. I'm not sure if I'm overthinking, but it is something we need to decide now so that we can work towards it. What is our ideal FINAL THREE?

[pleonast]

If no ones buys into my game secret idea with respect to Hal and faith, I'll eventually back down by saying something like "I'm used to being not listened to, so I'll drop it for now, but let's please revisit the issue if they're both still alive in a few Days".

Let's plan on killing either Hal or faith on the next Night. Either we get one lynched and the other is confirmed, or the Town doesn't agree with arguments against them and we need to kill them.

Let's not kill brewha toNight. Enough of the people voting for him (4 Townies) will want another go at him. There may be accusations about why the lynch stalled, especially when two players didn't vote. Someone could make a case that lynching brewha will give us information about the non-voters (story and Hazel). Worth it to leave him alive.

I'm thinking to kill Rysto, zuma or Kat.

On preview: I'll think about your most recent posts, sach.

[sachertorte]

Theory: By the endgame, town will have figured out that scum kills point to already dead scum. Does this lead to the conclusion that sharing an attribute with the last killer makes someone Town? I'm not sure it does. In reality it does, but Town doesn't know that yet. Perhaps I'm worrying about nothing. Plus, there is no way for me to be sure that HNC won't get lynched before someone else.

[pleonast]

My fear for the end game is that someone will analyze our kills' Dossiers and make a possibly lucky deduction about which traits are Townie and which are Scummy. I'm thinking along the lines of "anyone who has traits in common with the murdered (not lynched) is Townie". Can we avoid this fate?

I don't expect me to be the last Scum. I'm too antagonistic and will eventually piss off enough people to get lynched. When it gets near that point please push me in front of the bus if you see it coming.

[sachertorte]

pleonast said:

"I'm used to being not listened to, so I'll drop it for now, but let's please revisit the issue if they're both still alive in a few Days".

I'd leave out the "revisit the issue if they're both still alive in a few Days". Simply revisit it in a few days if they are still alive!
The way you say it is you're basically telling scum that if scum doesn't kill them, then they must be scum. If Town really said such a thing, scum would not kill them!

[sachertorte]

pleonast said:

My fear for the end game is that someone will analyze our kills' Dossiers and make a possibly lucky deduction about which traits are Townie and which are Scummy. I'm thinking along the lines of "anyone who has traits in common with the murdered (not lynched) is Townie". Can we avoid this fate?

Yes. Killing Rysto, Kat, or zuma will link HNC in the fashion you describe. (brewha too)
Killing brewha or Diomedes links Pleonast.
Killing HockeyMonkey or Hal Briston links me
FS is already linked so that might make your concern moot as an enterprising Townie should have discovered that FS (presumably dead by then) doesn't match the pattern.

I'm most concerned by which of FS's traits get revealed each day. If Pleonast's gets revealed, then FS and I die, then the evidence will point back to Pleonast as being scum. It's a consequence of having so many unique traits. Hopefully the random number generator will be kind this time and point to the exorcism trait. If that happens, my concerns lighten considerably.

Now that I write that out, I see that I'm being strange. I'm simultaneously worried about traits only pointing to scum now and only pointing to town later. Our best hope is that traits point to both scum and town. We just have to wait and see what the random number generator says. Boo.

[pleonast]

Good point about suggesting to revisit the issue.

I think what you've discovered is that the random number generator can screw us in multiple ways.

Freud, Hazel, any comments? sach and I tend to be over-analytic and may be missing the forest for the trees. Let us know what you think, even if you have no analysis.

[sachertorte]

oops. I mistated. Pleonast does have one attribute that will point to HNC.

[freudianslit]

Ack, sorry, I'm here finally. I was thinking about killing Hal Briston since he seems to be an obvious townie.

I'm still thinking that faithfool has framability potential. Her defensiveness, coupled with her newbiness....and people trust Dio, generally. I think if we leave her alive, people will eventually come around to his side and vote for her.

[sachertorte]

Killing Hal Briston will confirm faithfool in many eyes. Hal Briston will be revealed as Dossier Knower. That pretty much guarantees faithfool is Town because NAF giving Hal Briston a scum dossier is bad game design.

Not that I'm against killing Hal Briston. It's just that you should know that killing Hal will make lynching faithfool impossible.

We have all of tomorrow (Tuesday) to make our decision. We can then finalize on Wednesday morning. Plenty of time.

[freudianslit]

Okay. Do you guys all agree that it's good policy to try and keep faithfool around to frame? I'd like to stay away from Hal and faith in that case.

Kat is a nice, safe choice to lynch. Usually the very quiet ones turn out to be townies who just get distracted/busy.

[freudianslit]

On second thought, you said that Kat being killed will link Hazel. Since I'm already linked, who, by the dossiers, who is it best for me to kill?

[pleonast]

Oh, I just noticed Kat (along with faith) was voting for Dio. Does this affect whether or not to kill her?

[freudianslit]

Hmmmm. I'm not sure. I'm still thinking that it's Kat that I want to kill. Other thoughts?

[sachertorte]

I think we're going in circles.

Let's Keep a list of all available Townies and add pro/con arguments to each one:

<see next post>


Add your thoughts and opinions to the list and we can evaluate tomorrow morning.

[sachertorte]

1.storyteller0910 - con: Pleonast has a private attribute (unknown to Town) that matches storyteller's public one (Do NOT Kill)

4.brewha - con: nearly lynched on Day 3
- con: has one private attribute that might match a future kill (by Freudian Slit)

8.Hawkeyeop - con: Freudian Slit has a secret private attribute (unknown to Town) that matches Hawkeyeop's public one (Do NOT Kill)

13. Rysto - pro: linked to HazelNutCoffee
- con: the link is because HazelNutCoffee stole Rysto's public trait
- pro: looks like scum is trying to save brewha
- con: Rysto voted for brewha

14. Hal Briston - pro: Secret Role holder, nearly confirmed Town
- con: Hal Briston's death confirms faithfool as Town
- pro: looks like scum is trying to save brewha
- con: Hal Briston voted for brewha

15. faithfool - pro: game mechanics indicate faithfool is proTown
- con: Town suspects faithfool
- pro: leaves 7 brewha voters alive

16. zuma - con: has one private trait that might match a future kill (by sachertorte) (weak reason)
- pro: leaves 7 brewha voters alive
con: voted for faithfool

17. Hockey Monkey - pro: active player
- con: has two private traits that might match with future kills (from Freudian Slit and Pleonast) (weak reason)
- pro: looks like scum is trying to save brewha
- con: HockeyMonkey voted for brewha

18. Kat - pro: is linked to HazelNutCoffee
- con: quiet player, voted for Diomedes on Day 3
- pro: leaves 7 brewha voters alive

19. Diomedes - con: doggedly attacking faithfool
- con: has one private attribute that might match a futute kill (by sachertorte) (weak reason)
- pro: leaves 7 brewha voters alive

[sachertorte]

Do you really think you can pull off a faithfool lynch? I'm pretty sure you can't. The only Townies who voted for faithfool are Diomedes and zuma.

I don't think faithfool is lynchable.
At the same time I don't think we should kill faithfool Tonight. The message that would send is too clear. Scum wants brewha dead.

Of course this is all moot if Freudian Slit gets exposed Tomorrow

[freudianslit]

A lot of people voted for brewha. But I don't think just not voting for him means that we want him dead. I'm thinking Kat.

[freudianslit]

Anyone hear from Hazel at all? She hasn't posted at all toNight.

[pleonast]

Mods, can you check on Hazel?

Good pro/con list, sach. I read through it and can't think of anything to add to it.

I don't think a faith or Hal lynch is very likely at this point. But I think we should let the discussions about them gel another Day before taking killing faith and then Hal.

I think that leaves us with Kat as the best choice.

[freudianslit]

So that's two of us favoring a Kat kill with me as the killer, I'm assuming.

[naf1138]

I sent Hazel a PM on the dope, I will let you know what I hear.

[hazelnutcoffee]

I am so, so sorry. After New Year's I completely forgot about the game. It was very irresponsible - I don't know what the hell is wrong with me. I'll try to catch up tonight, if I'm still allowed to play after my ridiculous error. Deepest, most abject apologies. :: smacks self repeatedly ::

[sachertorte]

Uh, no need to apologize here.
You will need to apologize in the game thread.