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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 14:32:18 GMT -5
Post by naf1138 on Jan 25, 2008 14:32:18 GMT -5
48 hours starting now.
GO!
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 14:36:27 GMT -5
Post by hazelnutcoffee on Jan 25, 2008 14:36:27 GMT -5
Wow. I escaped by the skin of my teeth! That was too close for comfort. All right, Pleonast, what was that? What great scum strategy did you have up your sleeve, in which my lynch would somehow ensure our victory?
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 14:59:06 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 25, 2008 14:59:06 GMT -5
Yeah! Spill!
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 15:16:39 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 25, 2008 15:16:39 GMT -5
Anyway, I'm very glad HazelNutCoffee didn't die. I'm already irked about the dossiers. The way I view it, is our position is ready to collapse the moment HazelNutCoffee or I die. We've been fingered by dossiers already. I have a feeling that Pleonast won't avoid getting exposed soon. We designed the fake dossiers specifically to expose us because all indications were that Town would be exposed as well. Yeah, that game of guess the network structure didn't work out so great for us did it?
Anyway, I think I should continue the kill. There is the temptation to have HazelNutCoffee perform the kill since she might die Tomorrow, but the way we set up the Dossiers, this would be a very bad idea. HazelNutCoffee has a 1/6 chance of exposing herself a 2/6 chance of exposing Pleonast and a 1/6 chance of exposing sachertorte.
If she exposes herself, she's dead. If she exposes me, I'm probably dead since that will have been two traits lining up with me. If she exposes Pleonast, I don't think he'll die, but it sets up bad stuff for when I take over the killing again as I can expose Pleonast again.
That's 4/6 bad results if HazelNutCoffee does the killing.
For me, There's 2/5 bad results. 2/5 neutral results and 1/5 semi-good result.
So who to kill?
I'm at a loss. I stupidly tried to get faithfool killed today. If I had known that Diomedes would have been a viable target, I would have gone straight for him. Oh well.
I know I said we need to kill faithfool and Hal Briston, but I'm having second thoughts. We do need to kill them eventually, but faithfool is such a great distraction, and no one is really treating them as "confirmed Town" which is crazy weird. (although I think that the faithfool/brewha distraction pair might be a bit too much of a good thing).
I think brewha is off the table too as it's clear that the suspicion isn't dying down yet. Also brewha believes HazelNutCoffee is town, which is perfect becuase it would be clear that brewha is staying alive becuase of all the suspicion around him not because he believes HNC is town. Nice cover.
I kind of want to kill zuma, but zuma was voting for HNC and I don't like the way that would look. Hal Briston is an option, but my dossier might point to Hal Briston... though I want to table that kind of thinking. Rysto is a non-entity. Hawkeyeop I don't want to kill because he wants brewha dead Hockey Monkey is a good possibility too. As an endgame player HM is bad because HM shares TWO traits with me (fake). After I'm dead, I think this would be interpreted as something scum would have avoided. On the other hand I've been very bad at guessing what logical path the Town would follow, so who knows, maybe they would look at it and think HM is scum.
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 15:19:43 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 25, 2008 15:19:43 GMT -5
So HNC and Pleonast, who do you want dead and why?
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 15:52:12 GMT -5
Post by hazelnutcoffee on Jan 25, 2008 15:52:12 GMT -5
The irony of it all is that my "duke of Sicily" trait isn't even my real trait. Ah well.
zuma and HM have been the ones most at my throat, although I suppose zuma has been more vocal about it. Killing HM is an idea, if only because of her traits.
Also, zuma is the only one that has the "duke of Sicily" trait in his revealed dossier, other than myself. We definitely need him alive.
Is anyone even paying attention to faithfool anymore? I wonder if her purpose as a distraction has kind of played itself out.
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 16:27:33 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 25, 2008 16:27:33 GMT -5
My main reservation about killing faithfool is that I stupidly switched positions on faithfool again Yesterday.
Your point about zuma also having the Sicily trait is a good one. Do you think it possible or wise to spin zuma's death as scum trying to get HNC lynched. I mean here we are not killing zuma because we want her around to give you cover. If scum kills zuma, what does that say about HNC? 1) Killed to protect HNC because zuma voted for HNC 2) Killed to frame HNC since HNC has the Sicily trait. I'd say (1) would be the far bigger problem with killing zuma.
I think we need to make a pro-con list again.
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 16:45:04 GMT -5
Post by hazelnutcoffee on Jan 25, 2008 16:45:04 GMT -5
I guess the problem is that it's hard to predict how the town will react. zuma's death could go either way - it could be taken as a ploy to frame me, or it could be taken as evidence that he (she?) was right about me all along. (Perhaps they might buy the argument that scum wouldn't be so stupidly obvious .) The death of someone like faithfool might be less controversial - I think her death would be less likely to spark a discussion surrounding why she was killed and focus more on whatever other issues happen to be brought up first.
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 16:56:59 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 25, 2008 16:56:59 GMT -5
All Candidates (7)
brewha - con: still getting heat - pro: still not enough to lynch - pro: combined with faithfool makes lynches harder to enact - con: thinks HNC is Town - con: reveals too much data regarding the Day 3 non-lynch
Hockey Monkey - con: has a revealed trait - con: should probably be killed after sachertorte dies - con: voted for HNC, also pro: voted for HNC - con: wants brewha dead - issue: Day 3 vote for brewha
Hal Briston - pro: dossier-knower, possibly confirmed town - con: killing might confirm faithfool as town - pro: killing might be able to be spun into scum killing Hal Briston to confirm faithfool as Town (longshot) - con: could be revealed as having a killer's trait by sachertorte - issue: Day 3 vote for brewha
faithfool - con: still getting heat - pro: combined with brewha, makes lynches more difficult - neutral: will vote for whoever is in the lead.
zuma - con: voted for HNC, also pro: voted for HNC - pro: unpredictable behavior - con: has a revealed trait
Rysto - con: under-the-radar con: night message to Dio (we were on the same team again) was weird. Though could be interpreted as a town statement. Spinning it as scummy is perilous, scum wouldn't say something so blatant. - issue: Day 3 vote for brewha neutral: will vote for lead vote getter no matter what. This means HNC too.
hawkeyeop - con: wants brewha dead issue: Day 3 vote for brewha
Who do we think is most lynchable? brewha and faithfool might be, but we've not been able to get enough votes for them. Though now with the smaller numbers, brewha is vulnerable: HM, hawkeyeop, Rysto?, Hal Briston?, scum. We have to be very careful though with brewha. It might be best to save brewha for lynch-or-lose. Then if we are successful, brewha's alignment doesn't expose us. Brewha should be our LAST lynch target.
I think Rysto is lynchable, but it's a very shaky case.
Who do we think is most not lynchable? I think Hal Briston is in the least likely to be lynch category. zuma seems to be out of harms way too.
Hockey Monkey and hawkeyeop are difficult cases. I don't know who would vote for them. I think they are unlikely to be lynched as well.
I will try and reread the thread to determine who is threatening whom.
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 17:08:19 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 25, 2008 17:08:19 GMT -5
Who would vote for HNC tomorrow? assuming zuma and HM continue against HNC (though HM could easily switch back to going after brewha). also assume that Pleonast would need to support a HNC lynch as well. That's 2-3 votes for HNC. Rysto, faithfool, and Hal Briston would happily fill in the rest of the needed votes to lynch HNC. (5 to lynch) But if we can keep Hockey Monkey off HNC and on brewha, then Pleonast's vote, and zuma's makes 2. Hockey Monkey and Hawkeyeop on brewha makes 2. If I add my vote to brewha then that tips the scale towards a brewha lynch.
Looks pretty grim for HNC though. Let's see what Pleonast has to say. I think he wants you dead for some reason.
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 17:17:43 GMT -5
Post by hazelnutcoffee on Jan 25, 2008 17:17:43 GMT -5
I mean, if getting me lynched is ultimately going to end in a win for us, I'll happily put my neck in the noose. I just want to know why. Hawkeyeop is an interesting choice. I don't think he's very likely to get lynched either. But if can help us get brewha lynched it might be worth it to keep him around. I'm trying to decide if killing HM is going to ultimately make things better or worse for me.
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 17:19:57 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 25, 2008 17:19:57 GMT -5
For now, I'm leaning towards Hal Briston, but I keep changing my mind.
Hal is unlikely to be lynched I think that by killing someone who voted for brewha on Day 3, we show that scum aren't afraid of diminishing the brewha voting pool. If killing Hal makes people believe faithfool is Town, then that is a good thing because then hopefully we can get the faithfool voters to lynch brewha or Rysto. This indirectly gives us the benefit of killing faithfool.
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 17:42:08 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 25, 2008 17:42:08 GMT -5
I'm heading home now and I'm going to be crazy busy tomorrow. I should be able to check in Sunday Morning though. I hope I don't forget. In case I do... 1) I think I should do the kill. 2) I'm leaning towards Hal Briston, but I give power of attorney to HNC and Pleonast if I don't show up on Sunday. 3) We really should chart who's willing to vote for whom. If anyone has time...
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Night 6
Jan 25, 2008 17:51:49 GMT -5
Post by hazelnutcoffee on Jan 25, 2008 17:51:49 GMT -5
Well I'm just waiting for Pleonast to come in here and explain why he wants me dead.
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Night 6
Jan 26, 2008 14:44:49 GMT -5
Post by pleonast on Jan 26, 2008 14:44:49 GMT -5
Sorry, sorry, sorry, Hazel. (Just got back from my 3-day business trip.)
My tactic was I thought a simple analysis of the votes against brewha and Freud could be bad for us. I wanted to preempt that logic. It threw some suspicion at you, who I consider the most trusted, but puts sach in a good position.
Of course, the Town are sheep and a bunch jumped on it. More than I thought they would.
I loved brewha's comment "I don't find Dio particularly scummy, but I do think that Hockey Monkey and Pleonast are. I am voting purely based on my assumption that the person they are voting for is not scum."
Let me think about who to kill.
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Night 6
Jan 26, 2008 15:05:21 GMT -5
Post by pleonast on Jan 26, 2008 15:05:21 GMT -5
I think Hal is the best target. He won't be lynched. What the Town will jump on is not obvious, but I don't see him being lynched ever. I think everyone else is vulnerable.
And, again, sorry, Hazel, I really didn't expect they'd jump on it so eagerly.
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Night 6
Jan 26, 2008 15:31:19 GMT -5
Post by hazelnutcoffee on Jan 26, 2008 15:31:19 GMT -5
Heh, no worries. I suspected it might be something like that.
Well, let's bump Hal then.
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Night 6
Jan 26, 2008 15:41:07 GMT -5
Post by naf1138 on Jan 26, 2008 15:41:07 GMT -5
so Hal is going down...is it agreed that sach is the killer?
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Night 6
Jan 26, 2008 17:22:31 GMT -5
Post by hazelnutcoffee on Jan 26, 2008 17:22:31 GMT -5
A-yup.
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Night 6
Jan 26, 2008 18:56:20 GMT -5
Post by pleonast on Jan 26, 2008 18:56:20 GMT -5
Ok, so sach kills Hal. Don't end the Day early, though, in case sach wants to add anything.
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Night 6
Jan 26, 2008 23:21:12 GMT -5
Post by naf1138 on Jan 26, 2008 23:21:12 GMT -5
you have the full 48 hours is you want it.
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Night 6
Jan 27, 2008 12:33:00 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jan 27, 2008 12:33:00 GMT -5
brewha - Day One: MHaye - Day Two: No Vote - Day Three: Hawkeyeop - Day Four: Freudian Slit - Day Five: Diomedes - willing to Vote Hockey Monkey zuma - Day One: MHaye - Day Two: No Vote - Day Three: faithfool - Day Four: Freudian Slit - Day Five: HazelNutCoffee - willing to vote for HazelNutCoffee, faithfool, possibly Pleonast - suspicious of non-Freudian Slit voters: Pleonast, Hockey Monkey, HNC, Hal Briston, faithfool hockey monkey - Day One: MHaye - Day Two: One And Only Wanderers - Day Three: brewha - Day Four: brewha - Day Five: HazelNutCoffee - willing to vote brewha hawkeyeop - Day One: MHaye - Day Two: One And Only Wanderers - Day Three: brewha - Day Four: Freudian Slit - Day Five: Diomedes - willing to vote faithfool, brewha - thinks HNC is Town hal briston - Day One: zuma - Day Two: One And Only Wanderers - Day Three: brewha - Day Four: Diomedes - Day Five: Diomedes - willing to vote hawkeyeop, Pleonast, possibly brewha rysto - Day One: no vote - Day Two: Diomedes - Day Three: brewha - Day Four: Freudian Slit - Day Five: Diomedes faithfool - Day One: no vote - Day Two: One And Only Wanderers - Day Three: Diomedes - Day Four: Freudian Slit - Day Five: brewha - willing to vote brewha, or anyone probably There is a 20% chance of my public trait being revealed Tomorrow; I'm fairly certain it will be. We are only two lynches from winning. My death will re-balance the numbers. I will try to mount my own defense, but it will be intentionally weak. Do NOT try to defend me. Town will NEVER be implicated by public traits in this game; so there really wouldn't be any way to stop my lynch Tomorrow. I'm actually kind of more worried that Pleonast's fake private trait will be revealed. That would probably suck even more in the long term. Oh, and a note on the Dossier reveals. Do you think Town would have figured out the Dossier reveal if HNC hadn't said anything? I would discourage us from 'discovering' the revealed trait; unless you can be plausibly wrong. HNC's sharpness could be interpreted as scum knowing which trait it was because scum know who did the killing. Also, I would note that when OAOW's public trait was revealed, I actually thought the reveal was a different trait. I thought it was his "audio engineer" trait because the voice jumped from ear-to-ear. After that near miss (I luckily decided to just keep my mouth shut), I decided, that dossier clues would go solely huh? by me. Just be careful about being too knowledgeable. Plus, since the dossier items are getting harder and harder, we might be able to duck one as being indecipherable. We might be able to spin HNC's deciphering the Sicilian clue as being pro-town, but I personally will be avoiding mentioning it. Pleonast is in the anti-HNC camp, so he can't bring it up. Hopefully some townie will bring it up (Hawkeyeop or brewha?). My dossier reveals are 2/5 bad: my public trait, and Pleonast's fake private trait. 3/5 Neutral: point to OAOW, FS, and dead townies.
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Night 6
Jan 27, 2008 14:13:17 GMT -5
Post by hazelnutcoffee on Jan 27, 2008 14:13:17 GMT -5
I got way too excited over discovering the Sicilian clue. Hah. With any luck people won't pay too much attention to it, though. The only person that made any mention of it was zuma. He has that trait too, for what it's worth.
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