Welcome Sharks!

[pleonast]

Duh, I can steal one of the publicly available traits. Here's my false Dossier:

I've slept with two members of the Rolling Stones.
I got an autograph from Billy Crystal on top of the World Trade Center.
I am scared of moths.
I was trapped in Tibet for two weeks due to a blizzard.
I watched as over 30 people jumped out of an airborne aircraft.

Two are true, one is stolen from an Associate, and two are completely made up.

I suggest you guys do the following:
Keep two exactly the same.
Steal one from an Associate (preferably not a public one, but one that's been revealed by at least two Associates).
Invent one whole cloth.
Invent a second one, or steal a false one from another scum, or steal one from an Associate again.

Let's keep some variation in our last choices.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Who to kill and by who? I suggest a veteran player. It's also better to chose someone whose public trait doesn't match any of our private traits. I'll suggest brewha, who I stole a trait from that doesn't match any of ours.

I don't see that it makes much difference which of us kills, since we'll have to take a turn.* Anyone want to volunteer? I'd do it myself, but for sach's point.

* OaOW, the risk is that possibly two kills will be enough to positively identify the killer. However, with the false Dossier plan, that may be significantly mitigated. So, I'd be happy with using one killer until the Associates wise up. Do you volunteer?

[hazelnutcoffee]

Is there any pro-Town reason NOT to reveal dossiers? 'Cause I can't really think of any.

[pleonast]

The Associates may not realize how pro-Associate it actually is. We should be careful not to use information only we have to explain how bad it is for Scum.

[oaow]

2 things we have to be careful of. We know no-one has all 6 identical dossiers statements, so if in our stealing of statements we become identical to someoneelse, that will be a red flag. Also we don't know if anyone has a unique statement which no-one else has. If we start making these things up from whole cloth, we will stand out as the only ppl with unique staments, unless we share them.

[sachertorte]

I disagree with a few of Pleonast's strategies. We must be very careful about the false Dossiers. They need to have just the right number of links to each other as well as links to Town. Making up wholly false attributes will make our Dossiers stick out very very much. I'm tempted to say we should think up better ways to game the system. Even if we posted our Dossiers truthfully we could game the system by carefully selecting who to kill and who does the killing.

Another plan would be to game the system by switching attributes with each other. This is obviously more complex, and I haven't thought through all the ramifications yet. But I'm very worried about making up too many fake attributes.

hazelnutcoffee said:

Is there any pro-Town reason NOT to reveal dossiers? 'Cause I can't really think of any.

Because scum will game the system as best they can.
Because scum can lie.
Because death scenes will point to innocents as often (if not more often) than pointing to scum.
Say we have a death post that points to a non-public attribute of someone. Is that person scum? Or an innocent who is going to get framed because scum LIED about the Dossier?
Public data is the only data we can trust. Even that is sketchy because it could be an innocent whos public data matches that of a scum's private one.

Anyway. I need to read up and catch up.

[sachertorte]

Posted here for reference:
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - I was a trombone soloist in college.

storyteller0910 - I've travelled with royalty in torn T-shirt and jeans.

Hockey Monkey - I graduated from college over 9 years after enrolling, and I was nearly expelled twice.

zuma - I have walked along the shore of the Bay of Pigs.

Freudian Slit - I believe farts are really funny. People only pretend to not think they are.

Diomedes - While Jay Leno was doing a stand-up show I attended, he recognized me as someone who had previously seen him perform and spoken briefly with him.

sachertorte - I've climbed to the top chamber of Cheops.

Rysto - I wear a size 7 shoe.

Santo Rugger - One of my high school classmates was killed in the attack on the USS Stark.

faithfool - I believe the Honda Element is a good-looking car.

ShadowFacts - I enjoy practicing the cello

MHaye - I believe that zombies are inherently funny.

Kat - I played piano with Sly Stone in a Holiday Inn restaurant.

Pleonast - I had my last cat, Clawdia, professionally preserved and she sits in my bedroom.

One And Only Wanderers - I once had sex in front of the Washington Monument.

brewha - I am scared of moths.

HazelNutCoffee - I own an authentic 1920s lady's flapper outfit.

Hawkeyeop - I have performed an exorcism.

Hal Briston - I have a near phobia of octopi.

[oaow]

pleonast said:

* OaOW, the risk is that possibly two kills will be enough to positively identify the killer. However, with the false Dossier plan, that may be significantly mitigated. So, I'd be happy with using one killer until the Associates wise up. Do you volunteer?

Hell if it increases the chance for a team win I would happily volunteer. There is no I in team!

[sachertorte]

Dossier analysis so far:

Scum connections -
OAOW is the most connected scum. His attributes connect him to all other scum (degree 4)
Pleonast, HNC, and sachertorte are connected to degree 3
FreudianSlit is the least connected with degree 1 (connected to OAOW).

What does this mean? I don't know yet. How we use this information will depend on our selected strategy. Right now I'm leaning towards attribute swapping rather than attribute fabrication.

Our attributes overlap very little with the public attributes of Town. Therefore, framing town with the Dossier mechanics might prove difficult. IMPORTANT! Since our attributes tend not to match public attributes of Town, I'm very wary of poaching attributes in this way. Maybe one person can do it. Too much matching to public data and we will give ourselves away. Perhaps it would be good to replace existing matches (to public Town attribute) with a different public town attribute. Then the numbers work out better.

Storyteller's public attribute matches Pleonast and One And Only Wanderer's private ones.
Hawkeyeop's public attribute matches FreudianSlit's private one.

Early suggestion: FreudianSlit Kills Hawkeyeop (Which is sucky since Hawkeyeop is a new player). But the analysis so far points to this action being optimal.

The Dossier set up establishes a graph between players. If we toy around with the attributes too much, we risk exposing ourselves through graph analysis. Making up attributes is a bad idea! If I were town I'd look for people who are 'less connected' to the network and immediately suspect them.

I'm growing more convinced that careful swapping of attributes is best. We can have the same killer each night, and thus have better control over what information gets out there.

I will formulate Plan v1 shortly.

[sachertorte]

Plan v0:
Post Dossiers honestly.
Argue that Scum would not do this!

[sachertorte]

Note: If I were a townie, I'd probably fall onto the side of "yeah, post Dossiers and see if we can mine the information for inconsistencies." I'm not sure what I should do on Day One.

[oaow]

if im most connected, does that argue for me being used as the killer, as I am going to fall under suspicion anyway?

[pleonast]

sach, in the public thread, post the list of reasons you gave Hazel up above. Those are your concerns about posting Dossiers. But if you truly think those aren't strong enough to not reveal Dossiers, then say that. Your pre-game analysis had a lot of "let's wait and see before making a decision". Show you thought about it carefully and then state your conclusion. It'll look very honest and Townie.

I'm thinking you're right about swapping is superior to making stuff up. The trick is we need to boot-strap the process by getting the Associates to truthfully reveal their Dossiers. Ideally, we'll steal private attributes than two or more Associates have revealed. (Stealing one that has only been revealed once risks an Associate placing a lie to trap Scum.)

[sachertorte]

Ackkk. I'm stupid this morning.
Freudian killing Hawk is not optimal. It's the opposite of optimal.

Hawkeyeop and storyteller are golden (for now). We clearly should NOT kill them.

[sachertorte]

By swapping, I mean swapping amongst ourselves.

Reasoning: We are fairly well connected... redundantly so.

Assumption: The entire town should be as connected.

Problem: steal a Town connection while losing a scum connection, and our degree in the graph could become noticably different than the rest of the town.

The first thing I'm going to do if Dossiers get posted is draw out the full graph and look for anomalies.
Assertion: Anomaly == lie.

(Also stealing from Townies as the day progresses means on the fly calculations. There is greater chance for error here.)

What I hope to accomplish:
A modified set of Dossiers where our selected killer, who kills every night until lynched, has fake attributes that point to the rest of us equally. But only ONE. We will all get some heat, but heat is good. Too little heat will be suspicious. Hopefully, our killer will not be outed on Day One (his public attribute) and not lynched. On Day Two, the Two data points, will NOT point to scum because while all of us publicly stated that we share attributes with the killer, we only share ONE.

If we can massage it just right, we should be able to establish these relationships across all five of us, so that when one goes down, another can pick up the kills while minimizing our exposure.

The constraints I'm putting on myself is to try and maintain the same (fake) graph structure amongst ourselves, so that we fit into the greater network more inconspicuously.

[pleonast]

I think I can buy your strategy.

Here's a worry: what if Scum are more connected among ourselves and the Town more connected among themselves? By not stealing from them, we risk being in a separate "group" that will make finding us easier.

[sachertorte]

Something else to worry about:
None of us overlap twice. I don't know what the general network will look like. I think doubling up is probable, but doubles are going to look suspicious on Day One.

[pleonast]

sach, do you want to take a stab at listing fake Dossiers for all of us? It'd be some work (we'll have to do it soon anyway), but it'd make it critiquing it easier.

[sachertorte]

That's what I'm planning to do:
Rough cut (obtained by organized swapping) By chance, OAOW's is barely changed, but that is due to his having so much overlap with the rest of us. More work is obviously needed.

<deleted>

[sachertorte]

I've noticed that some attributes end in a period and some do not.

I've noticed that a common attribute between Pleo and HNC, one has a period and one does not.
Pleonast and HazelNutCoffee, could you double check your PM to confirm that the inconsistency is in the PMs? It is the model one.

[pleonast]

Yes, my missing period is also missing in the original PM. Do you think it's significant? Also note "traveller" instead of "traveler".

I'll start thinking about your proposed Dossiers. Thanks for the work!

[sachertorte]

I don't think it is significant. Just a mistake on the part of the Mods. We just have to be careful not to correct them. The inconsistency between the model ones worries me the most since it "looks" like a poor cut and paste by scum. Not sure what to do about it though.

[sachertorte]

I think OAOW should do the kill.
When he dies, we can then replace him with someone whose attribute was already revealed.

[sachertorte]

I keep thinking in circles. Now I'm thinking that FreudianSlip would be our best killer.

We need to make a strategy decision before I can continue. On Day One do we expect Town to latch onto Dossier reveals and use that to focus suspicion and the lynch Or do we think Town will be reserved?

Do we want to take heat on Day One? Or not?

If we want to avoid heat on Day One, FreudianSlip should do the killing.
If we want to take heat on Day One, One and Only Wanderer should do the killing.

How we design the Dossier will depend on the strategy we want to employ.

Choice One: Use Freudian and hope the town puts heat on those whose dossier matches

Choice Two: Use OAOW, and take let a scum take the heat early.

Right now I'm leaning towards letting FreudianSlit do the night kill, and modify all of our Dossiers to minimize exposure.

[pleonast]

Minimizing exposure is best.

The Town will have little to focus on other than looking at those whose Dossier matches the killer's trait(s). We want as few Scum as possible in that group.

Many Town will have no overlap with the killer's traits. Much easier for us to hide among them.

[freudianslit]

I think we should avoid heat, too.

Did I just volunteer for the first kill? ohhh boy...

[sachertorte]

Fake Dossiers:

<deleted>

[sachertorte]

Notes:
sachertorte has "grilled cow udder" which is one of Freudian's real attributes.
HazelNutCoffee has "nine languages" which is one of Freudian's real attributes.

As long as Freudian stays alive, our exposure is minimal.

What we need to do next, is consider what happens after Freudian dies. I'd like everyone to look at their fake Dossier and count how many of their items match the REAL dossier of all other scum. Then we can see if we want to balance it more, or make it more skewed to setup killer number two.

[sachertorte]

For example: for my fake dossier
2 of Pleonast's real dossier match mine.
1 of HNC's
1 of FS's
and
1 of OAOW's

I look balanced. Are you?

[pleonast]

Assuming Freud is the killer, his six real traits are
(Public) Farts are really funny. People only pretend to not think they are.
I can say 'hello' and 'thank you' in nine languages.
My mother was a former NFL cheerleader.
I've eaten grilled cow udder more than once.
I have performed an exorcism.
I once drove a VW Bug through the front door of a 7/11.

The overlap of each of those with our false Dossiers is
1
1
0
1
0
0

That looks good to me.

What do you suggest for Hazel's last trait?

[sachertorte]

Hazel and I should pick attributes that get publicly revealed during disclosure.

I also would like everyone to compare their false dossier with the real dossier of everyone else.